The Future of Healthcare Staffing: What’s Next for Locum Tenens and Travel Nurses

The post-COVID baseline

Since the pandemic’s peak, hospital operations and labor dynamics have been resetting. Hospital performance stabilized through 2025 as revenues recovered and cost growth cooled—yet workforce gaps remain a dominant constraint. kaufmanhall.com+1

On physicians, the AAMC projects a shortage of up to ~86,000 doctors by 2036, with especially tight supply in surgery and select specialties—structural demand that keeps locums relevant for the long haul. AAMC+1

On nursing, RN turnover spiked to ~27% during the crisis, then eased toward pre-pandemic norms; by 2024, RN turnover averaged ~16.4% and vacancy ~9.6%—still elevated enough to sustain external staffing needs. McKinsey & CompanyNSI Nursing Solutions

Travel nursing: from surge to steady state

Travel RN pay ballooned in 2021–2022 and then normalized through 2023–2024 (e.g., Vivian data show average weekly pay dipping ~10–11% in 2023 and a smaller ~3–4% decline in 2024). Despite the comedown, rates remain above 2019 and demand is resilient in high-acuity and rural settings. Expect a “right-sized” but durable market where premium labor flexes around seasonality (winter respiratory peaks, summer staffing gaps) and local shortages. Becker’s Hospital ReviewVivian

Locum tenens: expanding as a pressure valve

Locum utilization has marched upward as facilities absorb retirements, burnout, and uneven regional supply. Industry analyses point to double-digit growth in locums demand post-pandemic and continued expansion off a larger base, with an estimated ~52,000 physicians working locums annually. Facilities cite schedule coverage, access preservation, and burnout relief as top drivers—trends unlikely to reverse given the underlying physician shortfall. LocumpediaCHG Healthcare

Licensing compacts keep mobility high

Faster cross-state licensing is becoming a structural tailwind. The Interstate Medical Licensure Compact (IMLC) now covers the vast majority of states, streamlining multi-state practice for locum physicians. On the nursing side, the Nurse Licensure Compact (eNLC) continues to add jurisdictions (e.g., Pennsylvania’s full implementation in July 2025), supporting agile travel staffing and telehealth coverage. Interstate Medical Licensure CompactCompHealthNCSBN

Telehealth stays sticky—especially in behavioral health

Telehealth usage has settled well above 2019 levels. Among Medicare beneficiaries, ~12–13% used telehealth in late 2023; across specialties, virtual E&M visits stabilized around ~6% in 2023–2024, with much higher shares in mental health. This hybrid floor boosts demand for flexible, multi-licensed clinicians (including locums and travelers) and enables coverage in hard-to-staff markets. KFF+1MedRxiv

Macro forces that shape the next 3–5 years

• Demographics: The aging population (65+ share rising toward the 2030s–2040s) drives chronic-care and specialty demand, amplifying both locums and travel needs. PRB
• Employment mix: Health care remains the fastest-growing major sector in BLS projections; NPs and PAs grow fastest, but physician supply still lags demand in critical areas—sustaining external staffing reliance. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1
• Hospital finances: Margins improved from 2024 into 2025, but variability persists; leaders are using more precision staffing—flex pools, internal agencies, and on-demand marketplaces—blending with locums/travel to smooth peaks. kaufmanhall.comAdvisory Board

Practical predictions

1. Locum tenens becomes a strategic line item, not a stopgap. Expect broader specialty use (hospitalists, anesthesia, behavioral health, primary care) and longer engagements tied to recruitment gaps. AAMC
2. Travel nursing settles into targeted premium coverage. Rates won’t revisit 2021 highs broadly, but hard-to-fill shifts, seasonal surges, and rural placements will keep traveler demand (and differentials) intact. Vivian
3. Licensure compacts + telehealth = wider labor pools. More states in IMLC/eNLC and persistent virtual care will accelerate multi-state staffing models. CompHealthNCSBNKFF
4. AI-assisted scheduling and float pools grow. As margins recover, hospitals will adopt predictive tools to blend staff, per-diem, travel, and locums—reducing overtime and burnout while protecting access. (Inference based on margin/operational reports.) kaufmanhall.com

What facilities can do now

• Plan 6–12 months out for known shortages; secure locums early in tight specialties. AAMC
• Build hybrid coverage models (internal float + targeted travel + telehealth panels). KFF
• Leverage compacts to widen candidate funnels and shorten ramp times. Interstate Medical Licensure Compactnursecompact.com
• Track wage and turnover benchmarks (NSI, Vivian, SIA) to calibrate rates and avoid reactive spend. NSI Nursing SolutionsVivianStaffing Industry Analysts

Bottom line: Post-COVID normalization hasn’t erased staffing gaps—it’s clarified them. Physician shortages, uneven RN supply, licensing mobility, and a durable telehealth baseline point to a future where locum tenens and travel nurses remain essential. The winners will treat flexible staffing as strategy, not a last-minute fix.